Post by Farmduck on Dec 2, 2022 21:25:09 GMT 10
This post started in response to a post on another forum regarding the decision of Tokai, a major Japanese brand, to close operations in Australia. Further clarification showed they intend to cease Chinese production, scrap their budget lines and only make guitars in Japan.
This was a quote from their statement to distributors:
“To implement this refocusing of direction, it has been necessary for Tokai to put into place a new dealership network outside Japan, with distributors who are closely tied to the market for high end quality instruments."
Could any OZ distributor survive specialising in the high-end market? I'm no expert on the local market but, from watching FB, Gumtree and ebay, it seems the turnover slows right down once you hit the $3K mark.
I also don't know the lines between budget, mid-range and high. I would estimate: low - below $700, mid - 701 - 2000, high - >$2K? maybe $2500? It's not helped by the changes in the $A where, over the last 15 years, the $A has been worth anywhere from $US 0.40 up to $US 1.05 and today is about $US 0.68
I've often added guitars to watch lists even though I didn't want them, just to see how fast they moved and there seems an obvious buyer resistance cutting in around $3K. Maybe it's unrealistic sellers or people like me - I don't urgently need cash so if I put $4K on my ES335 I wouldn't care if it sat there for a year without a sale. Another related example is White Falcons which nearly all list over $4K. I remember watching a Falcon that sat there just over $4K for ages but when it was cut to $3995 it was gone in less than a week. It's like buyers have agreed on this mental trigger point. It's completely irrational. It's a quality model which will last 50 years and still be a good guitar so a $100 variation in price should mean nothing. This is doubly true when you consider that currency fluctuations, among other things, saw the price of a new White Falcon rise about $A1,000 during this period.
Similar story with Gibson LP Standards. For a few years on ebay the standard listing price for a basic 1990 - 2010 LP Standard was $3200. The actual "market price" was about $2500. What I mean is that ebay, once upon a time, was predominantly auctions and fixed price sales were less common. These days an open auction for any Gibson is practically unheard of. On the rare occasions I've seen one in the last 10 years, the going rate for a LP Standard is $2500. I once bought a Gibson 335 Studio - not a very popular or common model - for under $950 on ebay auction. Needless to say the "seller" seemed to immediately forget how to use his computer or open his emails or that he even had an ebay a/c.
I even sent that seller a message saying that if he didn't want to sell it at that price then just tell me and stop wasting my time. I'm not going to die just because I don't own one of the most bizarre ideas to come out of the Henry J Gibson era. If you're that determined to buy a cheap 335, get an Artist. I got one of their cherry 335s, hard case, home delivered for $400. Excellent guitar.
Speaking of guitar markets that defy logic, what is it with Japan and Mosrites? Every Japanese guitar site I browse has so many Mosrite knock-offs. As though every brand and factory made them. It's almost as though there was a period in the 70s or 80s when the Japanese were building new factories just to make new brands of Mosrite knock-offs. There were Greco, Suzuki, Morales, Guyatone, Rhythmline, Elk and others, not to mention the "clearly inspired by" versions from other makers.
But if I do a search like "japan guitar bands images" nobody is playing a Mosrite or Mosrite-like guitar. I assume it must tie into the whole nostalgia/retro thing around the "bizarre guitar" era but that ended mostly in 1970. But I don't see Japanese guitarists playing other models from that period either. Why the Mosrite? My bucket list item from that era would be the Teisco K4-L. Their advertising should have said something like, "If your axe doesn't have at least 4 pickups then you're just kidding yourself, loser!"
I know Eastwood still has a whole range of Mosrite knock-offs selling in the (mainly) USA market but Eastwood is tiny (in a production sense). My Airline came from a batch of less than 25 and only half of them were black. In their Airline Tuxedo range they only order 12 at a time in some colours.
So, bring back no-reserve auctions, I say! Let's blow up this myth that guitars are an investment. We can admit that maybe 1% of guitars on the market could be considered investments. The rest are just tools people use to make music.
This was a quote from their statement to distributors:
“To implement this refocusing of direction, it has been necessary for Tokai to put into place a new dealership network outside Japan, with distributors who are closely tied to the market for high end quality instruments."
Could any OZ distributor survive specialising in the high-end market? I'm no expert on the local market but, from watching FB, Gumtree and ebay, it seems the turnover slows right down once you hit the $3K mark.
I also don't know the lines between budget, mid-range and high. I would estimate: low - below $700, mid - 701 - 2000, high - >$2K? maybe $2500? It's not helped by the changes in the $A where, over the last 15 years, the $A has been worth anywhere from $US 0.40 up to $US 1.05 and today is about $US 0.68
I've often added guitars to watch lists even though I didn't want them, just to see how fast they moved and there seems an obvious buyer resistance cutting in around $3K. Maybe it's unrealistic sellers or people like me - I don't urgently need cash so if I put $4K on my ES335 I wouldn't care if it sat there for a year without a sale. Another related example is White Falcons which nearly all list over $4K. I remember watching a Falcon that sat there just over $4K for ages but when it was cut to $3995 it was gone in less than a week. It's like buyers have agreed on this mental trigger point. It's completely irrational. It's a quality model which will last 50 years and still be a good guitar so a $100 variation in price should mean nothing. This is doubly true when you consider that currency fluctuations, among other things, saw the price of a new White Falcon rise about $A1,000 during this period.
Similar story with Gibson LP Standards. For a few years on ebay the standard listing price for a basic 1990 - 2010 LP Standard was $3200. The actual "market price" was about $2500. What I mean is that ebay, once upon a time, was predominantly auctions and fixed price sales were less common. These days an open auction for any Gibson is practically unheard of. On the rare occasions I've seen one in the last 10 years, the going rate for a LP Standard is $2500. I once bought a Gibson 335 Studio - not a very popular or common model - for under $950 on ebay auction. Needless to say the "seller" seemed to immediately forget how to use his computer or open his emails or that he even had an ebay a/c.
I even sent that seller a message saying that if he didn't want to sell it at that price then just tell me and stop wasting my time. I'm not going to die just because I don't own one of the most bizarre ideas to come out of the Henry J Gibson era. If you're that determined to buy a cheap 335, get an Artist. I got one of their cherry 335s, hard case, home delivered for $400. Excellent guitar.
Speaking of guitar markets that defy logic, what is it with Japan and Mosrites? Every Japanese guitar site I browse has so many Mosrite knock-offs. As though every brand and factory made them. It's almost as though there was a period in the 70s or 80s when the Japanese were building new factories just to make new brands of Mosrite knock-offs. There were Greco, Suzuki, Morales, Guyatone, Rhythmline, Elk and others, not to mention the "clearly inspired by" versions from other makers.
But if I do a search like "japan guitar bands images" nobody is playing a Mosrite or Mosrite-like guitar. I assume it must tie into the whole nostalgia/retro thing around the "bizarre guitar" era but that ended mostly in 1970. But I don't see Japanese guitarists playing other models from that period either. Why the Mosrite? My bucket list item from that era would be the Teisco K4-L. Their advertising should have said something like, "If your axe doesn't have at least 4 pickups then you're just kidding yourself, loser!"
I know Eastwood still has a whole range of Mosrite knock-offs selling in the (mainly) USA market but Eastwood is tiny (in a production sense). My Airline came from a batch of less than 25 and only half of them were black. In their Airline Tuxedo range they only order 12 at a time in some colours.
So, bring back no-reserve auctions, I say! Let's blow up this myth that guitars are an investment. We can admit that maybe 1% of guitars on the market could be considered investments. The rest are just tools people use to make music.